The EU’s 2040 climate target: unlocking the full potential of a decarbonised economy, energy security, energy independence and a Paris Agreement compatible pathway to net-zero
Publications: Environmental Democracy
Summary
- The European Climate Law requires the European Commission to propose an intermediate climate target for 2040. The European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC) has recommended that the EU should adopt a domestic target of 90-95% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040.
- The 2040 target is not a new target but is an interim target to help to ensure that the EU is on track to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. Recent data (e.g. the recently published NECP assessment) shows that progress is being made and that overall Europe is on track to meet its targets – but a clear policy framework and stable investment signal is required to ensure this progress continues across all member states.
- Recent proposals have suggested ways of weakening the target through changing how member states measure their progress, including opening the EU 2040 climate target and Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement to international credits. These proposals carry significant risks and have the potential to derail the EU from its pathway towards climate neutrality. A legally binding domestic target of at least 90% net emissions reduction by 2040, unweakened by changes in how progress is measured is vital to limiting the temperature rise to 1.5°c and keeping Europe on track to reach climate neutrality by 2050.
- An ambitious 2040 target is important because it will help stop environmental degradation, limit the impacts of climate change, ensure the EU meets its international climate obligations and stays on the pathway towards climate neutrality. Importantly, a clear and ambitious 2040 target will deliver on key EU and national strategic priorities:
- Economic prosperity: Reduce the cost of energy, the cost of living, create jobs and ensure prosperity and a just transition.
- Competitiveness: Provide a certainty to investors, unlock innovation, promote business growth and boost job creation.
- Resilience and security: Increase sovereignty through energy security and energy independence and remove vulnerabilities to foreign influence through fossil fuel dependence.
- Fairness, the future and fundamental rights: Intergenerational fairness or equity in climate action is increasingly understood not just as an issue of ethics but also as a fundamental rights issue.
- Alignment between EU and national climate law: Ireland has already committed to ambitious targets at national level and supporting a robust 2040 target at EU level is an opportunity to ‘lead from the front’.
- Key votes on the EU’s 2040 target are happening in the European Parliament from June 2025 onwards. Pursuit of an ambitious 2040 target makes sense for all Irish MEPs to support on a cross-party basis because this crucial policy debate offers Ireland a unique opportunity to provide international leadership, ensure the EU stays on course to meet its legal obligations on emissions reductions and demonstrate that it has finally turned the page on climate action.
Download this document:
EJNI-Briefing-on-the-EUs-2040-Target-03.06.25.pdf
Acknowledgments
Please cite this document as: ‘An ambitious 2040 target for a Paris Agreement compatible pathway to net-zero’ EJNI Briefing Paper, May 2025 available here.
The Environmental Democracy Observatory Project has been generously funded by the European Climate Foundation.
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